The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released an updated forecast on Thursday, predicting a substantial rise in oil demand by 2050, particularly as China’s economic conditions improve.
According to OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2050 report, oil demand is expected to increase from 103.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 to 113.3 million bpd by 2030, and further to 123 million bpd by 2050, marking a net increase of about 19 percent over the next 25 years.
In addition to oil, OPEC anticipates that demand for other energy sources will also rise, reaching an equivalent of 378 million bpd by 2050. Factors driving this demand include growing populations, global economic expansion, the trend toward energy-intensive urban living, and the rising energy needs of artificial intelligence (A.I.).
Much of the increased demand is expected to come from developing nations in Africa and the Middle East, as well as from India, which is emerging as an industrial powerhouse. These regions exhibit key indicators for demand growth: expanding industries, increasing populations, and urbanization.
The report expressed concern that former President Donald Trump’s withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement could lead to heightened demand for hydrocarbons, particularly oil and gas.
OPEC’s urbanization projections are striking, predicting that around 1.9 billion people will move to cities in the next 25 years. This urbanization is expected to drive significant growth in road and air travel, both of which require substantial fuel.
OPEC leaders are urging member countries to invest in production and storage capabilities to meet the anticipated rise in global oil demand. The report forecasts a surge in demand within about four years as China’s economy begins to recover, suggesting that oil-producing nations should start building their inventories now. An estimated $18.2 trillion in investments will be necessary over the next 25 years to fulfill this demand.
Bloomberg News has expressed skepticism about the report, labeling OPEC’s projections of soaring oil demand through the middle of the century as “an outlier even within the petroleum industry.”
The news outlet noted that organizations such as BP Plc, Bank of America Corp., the International Energy Agency, and Wood Mackenzie predict that demand will plateau in the coming decade, as China shows signs of reaching its peak consumption. Scientists have warned that the unfettered burning of fossil fuels envisioned by OPEC could lead to environmental disaster.
Nevertheless, Bloomberg acknowledged that “oil use has exceeded expectations in recent years as the transition to renewable energy remains challenging.”
The report also pointed out that while OPEC has at times made overly optimistic projections about oil demand, these forecasts have allowed the OPEC+ alliance—now including Russia—to capture 52 percent of the growing market by 2050, an increase from its current share. The takeaway appears to be that underestimating the demand for reliable, affordable energy can be a risky mistake.
