Staff Reporter
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its growth predictions for key Asian economies in 2025, citing ongoing trade tensions and significant policy uncertainty.
In its latest report, the IMF lowered the GDP growth forecasts for China and India to 4% and 6.2%, respectively, down from earlier estimates of 4.6% and 6.5%.
China has set its official GDP growth target at “around 5%” for 2025, while India anticipates 6.5% growth for its fiscal year running from April 2025 to March 2026.
Japan’s growth forecast also took a hit, now projected at 0.6%, down from 1.1%. Japan’s own target remains at 1.1% for the same fiscal year.
On a global scale, the IMF has reduced its growth outlook to 2.8%, down from 3.3% for 2025. The organization highlighted that tariffs implemented by the U.S. and its trading partners represent a significant setback to growth.
It noted that the unpredictable nature of these trade measures further complicates economic activity and forecasting.
This revision aligns with a broader trend, as various research firms and banks are also cutting growth forecasts for Asian economies.
Fitch Ratings has adjusted its India growth estimate to 6.2%, from 6.3%, pointing to a deteriorating global economic landscape exacerbated by the escalating U.S.-China trade conflict.
Since taking office on January 20, President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on imports, including steel, aluminum, and automobiles, and announced extensive “reciprocal” tariffs on nearly all countries on April 2.
While Japan has sought a diplomatic approach, sending a trade delegation to engage with U.S. officials, the latest discussions yielded no agreements.
Japan’s chief negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, expressed disappointment, emphasizing the negative impact of the tariffs and urging the U.S. to reconsider its policies.
In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with U.S. Vice President JD Vance on Monday, where both leaders acknowledged the progress made in negotiations for a mutually beneficial India-U.S. Bilateral Trade Agreement.
