Staff Reporter
Goldman Sachs has reduced its forecast for Brent crude’s average price this year by 5.5%, bringing it down to $69 a barrel, while the estimate for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is cut by 4.3% to $66. The adjustments reflect concerns over a potential increase in OPEC+ supply and the impact of a global trade war, which could lead to a recession.
The Wall Street firm also revised its 2026 average price predictions, lowering Brent by 9% to $62 and WTI by 6.3% to $59. Analysts caution that these new estimates may be subject to further reductions.
“The risks to our lowered oil price forecast lean toward the downside, particularly for 2026, due to growing recession risks and, to a lesser extent, increased OPEC+ supply,” Goldman analysts noted in a report.
As of 0408 GMT on Friday, Brent crude was priced at $69.59 a barrel, while WTI stood at $66.39.
Crude prices experienced their largest percentage drop since 2022 on Thursday, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs on numerous countries. Additionally, eight OPEC+ members unexpectedly moved to accelerate the phasing out of production cuts by increasing output in May.
Goldman emphasized that OPEC’s ability to quickly implement significant output increases reduces the chances of a short-term price surge due to lower supply. The brokerage now anticipates that oil demand will grow by only 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year, down from a prior estimate of 900,000 bpd, with an expected increase of 700,000 bpd in 2026.
