Staff Reporter
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has recently revised its oil forecasts, warning that Brent crude could potentially fall below $40 a barrel in “extreme” scenarios due to escalating trade tensions and rising supplies.
In an April 7 report, analysts including Yulia Grigsby noted that, under a less likely but more severe situation involving a global GDP slowdown and a complete rollback of OPEC+ production cuts, Brent prices could drop just below $40 by late 2026. However, this outlook is not the bank’s primary forecast, which currently anticipates Brent at $55 by next December.
The global oil market has faced significant volatility recently, driven largely by the Trump administration’s intensified trade conflict and pushback from countries like China, increasing recession fears and challenges for energy demand. Concurrently, OPEC+ has shifted its strategy, bringing more barrels to market than previously expected after a period of tight supply management.
In light of these developments, major banks such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Societe Generale SA have adjusted their base-case forecasts while also considering various bearish and bullish scenarios—a common practice among commodity analysts assessing different market conditions.
For a “typical” U.S. recession coupled with expected supply trends, Goldman analysts predict Brent crude prices at $58 a barrel this December and $50 in the same month next year. As of now, Brent is trading at $63.90 a barrel, having reached a four-year low earlier this week.
