Hong Kong’s exports are set to grow by 4% in 2025, building on a positive trend observed throughout 2024, according to the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) Research.
In its Export Outlook 2025 report, the HKTDC highlighted that electronics exports surged by 13.5% year-on-year in the first ten months of 2024. This growth is expected to continue, particularly driven by strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled systems.
Irina Fan, director of HKTDC Research, noted that consumer sales are likely to benefit from the launch of a new generation of AI-integrated smartphones, computers, and other digital devices.
However, the report also pointed out potential challenges ahead, including U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to impose higher tariffs on imported goods. If these tariffs are enacted, they could disrupt global trade flows and accelerate trade diversions, potentially affecting Hong Kong’s export activities in the coming year.
“What the U.S. has announced is not just tariffs on goods from Hong Kong or the mainland, but also targeting major trading partners. This could have a significant negative impact on global trade,” Fan explained.
Despite these concerns, HKTDC noted that trade levels with mainland China have remained strong, with its share of global exports increasing from 12.7% six years ago to 14.1% in 2023. The research suggested that the proposed U.S. tariff regime might be a starting point for negotiations rather than a definitive outcome.
Geopolitical uncertainties and the looming threat of tariff increases have led to a more cautious outlook among exporters. This sentiment is reflected in the HKTDC’s Export Confidence Index for the fourth quarter of 2024, which showed declines in both the Current Performance Index and the Expectation Index.
The Current Performance Index dropped to 50.3 from 52.6 in the third quarter, while the Expectation Index fell to 50 from 51.4.
To mitigate the potential impacts of tariffs, HKTDC Research indicated that exporters may speed up their shipping schedules in the first half of 2025, anticipating a surge in activity during that period, followed by a slowdown in the latter half of the year.
Keywords: #Centsationalmarket #HongKongExports #AI #Electronics #Tariffs #HKTrade #HKTDC #GlobalTrade #2025Outlook
