A leading expert on conflict has raised alarm bells, suggesting that numerous European nations are on the brink of civil war—possibly already beyond the point of no return.
David Betz, a Professor of War in the Modern World at King’s College London, indicates that research shows a statistically significant chance of civil unrest erupting in a major European country within the next five years, with the potential for violence to spread to neighboring nations.
In an interview with documentarian Andrew Gold, Betz expressed concern that it may be too late to prevent a severe escalation in Europe, suggesting that governments should focus on preparing for what seems inevitable.
“I would probably avoid big cities. If possible, reduce your exposure to urban areas,” Betz cautioned. He added, “There’s nothing that can be done now; it’s already baked in. We’re past the tipping point… past the stage where conventional politics can solve the problem.”
Betz emphasized that “almost every plausible path forward involves some form of violence.” He noted that any government action at this stage might resolve one issue but could exacerbate another, leading back to conflict.
“The focus should be on mitigating the costs, not preventing the outcome,” he stated, expressing skepticism about any credible political solutions or figures who could effectively lead the nation through this crisis.
“The bottom line is there’s no political resolution that leads to everything working out peacefully after a period of difficulty,” Betz concluded. “Things are bad now, but they’re going to get much worse before there’s any hope for improvement.”
He acknowledged the grim nature of his predictions, saying, “I understand my statements are extremely unpleasant. Dear elites, the consequences of your actions have arrived.”
Betz pointed to the United Kingdom, France, and Sweden as countries already facing “dire social instability,” “economic decline,” and “elite inaction,” all historical indicators of potential conflict. He estimates that a civil war in the UK, with its population of 70 million, could result in tens of thousands of deaths.
“The most unstable societies tend to be moderately homogenous,” he noted, explaining that majority groups often feel threatened and are more likely to fight to maintain their dominance. While research suggests that the UK may become a minority white country in the coming decades, Betz believes that enough native Britons may move to counter this trend.
“You could argue that, but it relies on many assumptions about how people will respond. I don’t think society is so inert,” he contended.
“I believe the British people do not want to feel displaced from their own country… There’s a growing urgency to act to preserve what they hold dear.”
Betz further asserted that the very idea of England is “seriously in peril.” He warned that the way people react to this threat could lead to extreme consequences. “I hope that doesn’t happen, but we are at a very precarious moment.”
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Censational Market.
